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Sea Level Rise is a Hockey Stick

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Larry Goldzband (Bay Area Conservation), Jim White (INSTAAR), Tiffany Troxler (Florida International University), and citizen scientists discuss sea level rise today and for the future. We're planning for 4-7 feet (+2 meters) of sea level rise by the end of the century, which is about twice as much as was projected just some years ago. Sources Sea Level Rise: How High? How Fast? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1QedgZuNCE Citizen Scientists and Rising Sea Levels https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYJNGIPBgbI Sea Level Rise Adapting to Higher Seas https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQUsKUpfa9s
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Text Comments (76)
FortisFinances (3 months ago)
"2 extra feet of water by 2050"..." - 😂 - Who are these bozos?! - We are going to be lucky if some of us is alive by 2050, with the EXPONENCIAL melting of ice and the Siberian methane bomb, God knows how 2050 will look like.
listen2meokidoki (4 months ago)
Religion will find an answer. It can draw upon supernatural Powers. It can make bad people repent and they still get to heaven where there is no climate change. No sea level rise. No floods. No droughts, hunger or thirst. And there are a really large number of virgins for everyone. Except the women. They have to put up with really old men, if their husbands don't make it. Or something like that. I mean what if their husbands prefer blond virgins. There has to be at least 4 of them.The maximum number of Earthy wives.
Kratax (6 months ago)
Buildings need to be designed so that people can construct additional pylons under them.
Leigh Foulkes (6 months ago)
How long can they simply buy a few more levels and how long till the money runs out? 2017 we spent around 300 billion dollars on natural disaster and how much will this new civil engineering cost? How much will the natural disaster in 2018 cost us?. It just pisses me off that we expect our kids and even their kids to come up with all the answers, solutions and the money to our destructive and selfish behaviors. "I'm not worried, some geniuses will figure all the answers to all our problems at some point in the future and I don't need to change my destructive behavior."
John Omalley (6 months ago)
It started in the fields of Africa thousands of years ago, when LUCY, started to walk upright!!!#
John Otvos (6 months ago)
There is no denying the hockey stick curve of sea level rise if one lives in Miami or Richmond. However, based on the heat and droughts across the northern hemisphere this past summer, a more pressing thought is; can we grow the food grains that sustain human life? I feel that to heal the runaway climate breakdown emergency, humans will have to think outta the box and drastically alter their animal food diet, the #1 cause of this emergency.
John Otvos (6 months ago)
Absolutely! It will be different in every locality and entirely dependant upon tradition and vision.
parajacks4 (6 months ago)
A multi pronged effort is want’s essential for the survival of our civilisation.
S Cin (6 months ago)
It seems like they need a reality check. Its a great deal worse than the imagine.
0.6 metres seems a bit low for 2050.
Level1 Life (6 months ago)
4-7 ft. by the end of the century? Sorry to break it to you bud but it's gonna be more like 4-7 meters at least :*(
Harmen Greven (2 months ago)
not according to science. +/- 60cm by end of century. Something my country (Netherlands) can't cope with.
javi del (6 months ago)
bye bye florida!
Laurence Vanhelsuwe (6 months ago)
Bye bye Holland and low-lying Belgium. Over here, our politicians are still completely oblivious to the inevitable SLR.
Stephen Morris (6 months ago)
Current estimates are a doubling of sea level rise every seven years. But given the way Antarctica loses ice on the West Antarctic ice sheet that could be a massive underestimate
Laurence Vanhelsuwe (6 months ago)
If you consider that only a massive, massive kick up the arse will wake up the 7 billion sheeple zombying around all day.. then really abrupt climate change may do the trick. Of course, it will be too late to halt further apocalyptic stuff unrolling down the line, but maybe mankind will finally view the capitalist creme de la creme as what they truly are: enemies of mankind, nothing more or less. All current CEO's of "successful" multi-nationals deserve to rot in hell for constantly cracking their whips to fuel corporate competition, profiteering, exploitation, and undermining democracies all over the world.
Deebz270 (6 months ago)
The ENTIRE cryosphere is thawing. Even the EAIS, it is now realised, is losing ice mass...
R Nunez C. (6 months ago)
the point should be, how can we trust all these so called authorities on climate change or not, when most of them, especially the deniers, never saw it coming?...and still most dont. we all should keep in mind that the high levels we have right now of GHG 400+ will be effective in a decade or so. meaning what effects we see now is for the GHG levels 10 years behing. ..of course then nobody really knows what and how this is going to unfold, but we sure can imagine is not good for places already being affected ...best luck and love nature..
R Nunez C. (6 months ago)
Not even academics "know" or "knew"..What I am trying to say is, nodoby knows EXACTLY how this is going to play out-unfold..but we can see now in places like Fla, Pacific Islands, etc. The HIGHER LEVELS of tides which were not foreseen by neither academics or of course deniers. What I mean to say further (excuse my bad english writing I am not english speaking) is that if now we have those levels which are much higher than predicted, whats to come, and in exponential and not linear rise of ocean levels?...Most keep saying by 2100 even academics which is nonsense as per actual evidence...
Deebz270 (6 months ago)
Just to be clear - Academics have known of the effects of Hothouse Earth conditions 200 years ago... And amongst the academics (around 99% of them...), the climate change debate was over decades ago. . Deniers never saw it coming? Deniers don't *believe* in climate change - PERIOD. . You are correct about the latent effect of atmospheric GHG's though. And this is the reason why *nothing* can realistically be done to mitigate this climate clusterfuck. . Finally, many of us, have a good understanding of how this will pan out.... Widespread Mass extinction of most, if not all species on this planet. YES! It *is* the most likely outcome.
karl bailey (6 months ago)
Nothing major will be done. Why not? Investments. The great earthquake of San Francisco. They rebuild right on a fault line, in the bay area, why money. Whose going to scare all those investors off? Better to keep it quiet, pocket the money, and buy property inland. It will be the little guys who will pay the price
PK Saenz (6 months ago)
And Nobody really knows when this will worsen? Correct! But you can't solve Miami's flooding on a sun shining day by raising the city streets three feet. It is to costly for a quick fix, and it won't be finished before it is already flooded by more sea level rise, and therefore useless. Why spend all that tax payers money for nothing?
George L (6 months ago)
Hockey Stick? Well that's one way not to cause panic, people are still buying Waterside Property so I guess there's nothing to worry about.....ummm, unless you compare the last time CO2 levels were this high, then Sea Level was approximately 15 meters higher than they are now. I suppose there's also no point in worrying about the fact that every glacier on the Planet is melting away faster every year....nah, nothing to see here.
listen2meokidoki (4 months ago)
Religion will find an answer. It can draw upon supernatural Powers. It can make bad people repent and they still get to heaven where there is no climate change. No sea level rise. No floods. No droughts, hunger or thirst. And there are a really large number of virgins for everyone. Except the women. They have to put up with really old men, if their husbands don't make it. Or something like that. I mean what if their husbands prefer blond virgins. There has to be at least 4 of them.The maximum number of Earthy wives.
George L (6 months ago)
Brayden McCormack Although I think it’s already too late, we know the power of social media! Maybe somebody can bring the scientists together with the industrialists and instruct the politicians to start spending like there’s no tomorrow; because there is no tomorrow!
Brayden McCormack (6 months ago)
I agree, it's crazy. I think the previous video on this channel gives a pretty good answer to this...too complex to comment on here. But seeing this growing gap between real scientific data and policy/public opinion is pretty scary....what's going to happen when everyone starts paying attention to the scientists?
George L (6 months ago)
Karl, sadly you’re not even close, we have completely ignored all the warnings from the first paper on Global Issue of Carbonic Acid (CO2) was presented to the National Academy of Sciences in 1856 by Mrs Eunice Foote. Being a women meant she was not allowed to become a member so the paper was delivered by a man and subsequently ignored. Through the suggestion that burning fossil fuels would cause Global Warming was made by Svante Arrhenius in 1896, again ignored. Then Paul Ehrligh’s book “The Population Bomb” which was totally correct…..but he was unaware of the coming Green Revolution; The Dwarfing of Grain Stems allowing a tripling of seeds to be produced. Thereby enabling a World Population of almost 3 billion to grow to a current 7.65 billion. We have now a “perfect storm” that we have ourselves have created, much of which was promised by James Hansen to congress speach in 1988. I think the main issue for us (humanity) is a simple one, if I threaten to punch you in the face right now, you will react, one way or another, but there will be some reaction. On the other hand, if I threaten to punch you in the face sometime in the next 20 to 30 years….you react with “yeah, OK, Jog on” and so we have this dire situation, one which there is not one single realistic idea how to resolve, as I’m now here holding a ballistic missile to your face. What you going to do? Nobody has a clue; honestly! During this population growth, we have decimated the Sea’s; killing off 85% of all marine life, at the same time killing off 80% of all animal life and as of 2017; 82% of all insect life now gone. Don’t believe me, go out and listen for the morning of evening chorus; there isn’t one. The birds haven’t flown, they’ve fallen off their perch just like the Monte Python sketch, they have ceased to be. This is the Anthropocene, the 6th mass extinction and it’s totally man made. The Arctic Sea Ice is melting and is expected to be Ice free in 2019 or maybe 2020 at the very latest. The Antarctic Glaciers are mostly becoming unstable like the Totten Glacier, hither too thought to be bomb proof in terms of Global Warming. The Arctic (including Greenland) and Antarctic are the two Air Conditioning Units for the Planet, they reflect the Sun’s radiation back out to space and cool the Oceans. In the last 50 years the Arctic has lost 50% of the Ice Cap cover and 70% of its depth, i.e. about 80% lost. Permafrost is melting at alarming rates and releasing massive amounts of CO2 Carbon Dioxide and CH4 Methane. The last time in history when CO2 levels were at 400 PPM Temperatures were higher and Sea Levels were 15 meters higher than today, July 2018 CO2 levels 408PPM. Methane is the real killer though, responsible for 4 of the last 5 mass extinctions. The Level of CH4 in the atmosphere in 1750 (the start of the Industrial Revolution) was 694PPB as of April 2018 the “latest figures” it was 1,858PPB. The biggest contributor of Methane is cattle, they produce somewhere between 30-40% of all methane currently being released, yet we still consume Beef in ever increasing amounts (myself included on occasion). CH4 is 86 times more potent as a greenhouse gas over Carbon. However, 5 or 6 years ago, maybe longer Natalia Shakova stated if we lose the Permafrost 50 gigatonnes (that’s 50 million) of Methane could be released into the Atmosphere in short order. Dr Michael Mann wrote the book The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars, he was vilified for it and received death threats to him and his family. Peter Wadhams the leading Professor at Cambridge University started warning of the dire consequences ahead and was subsequently pushed out into retirement, he wrote the recent book “A Farewell to Ice”. You can watch a video of Peter setting fire to Ice on Youtube…..it came from the East Siberian Sea Bed, an area only 50 meters deep holding an estimated 1.8 trillion tonnes of Methane in which the water is estimated to rise in temperature to some 75F (24C, normally -30C to zero) once the Arctic Sea Ice has gone. All these people mentioned are the most respected leaders in the World with regards to the Climate. Scientists are shunned, threatened and fired from positions if they speak up. Politian’s say nothing for fear of losing financial support from the Oil and Gas industries and the free world is led by in incompetent and wholly corrupt individual who ignores the Scientists because he doesn’t believe them. Nobody has a clue how to go about fixing this. Many people, myself included think we have a maximum of 3-4 years of abject hell ahead of us before 99.9999% of all life is extinguished from the planet. Maybe microbes and some fungi will survive?
Karl Rosengrant (6 months ago)
George L So true! I also find it interesting that so many people are still buying SUVs and other gas guzzlers when energy prices have risen and will rise again soon. The fracking industry lost $450million last year alone. The price will go up whether fracking survives or not. I hope it wont. Human beings are so good at ignoring evidence that doesn't support their view of the world. That and our inability to get good leaders is likely going to doom this planet to thousands of years as a desert planet. A Dune like Earth is what I think is coming. I hope not.
carlos59666 (6 months ago)
There is ample notice. Let's start moving away from these areas and reinvest in other areas. We are very lucky to have hindsight and knowledge of this matter. The earth has changes over the years so this is just not new and our ancestors moved and adapted to the changes.
MrTrashCompaktor (6 months ago)
No lets be our happy selves in the face of all adversity....and be our own 'local heroes'.....whether we are recognised as that or not. I know you are probably not meaning what your words are saying Mr Randomjack. I just fear that encouraging despair may become its own feedback loop and tipping point....save those war words for the enemy... :)
A. Randomjack (6 months ago)
Yeah. Lets all give up and commit mass suicide. You probably know life is a sexually transmitted deadly disease.
Grey Silverback (6 months ago)
Our ancestors didn't drive monster trucks and live in mc mansions.
Deebz270 (6 months ago)
Nothing new here. Though well meaning, Mr Carter is still tilling the hopium fields, in the mistaken belief that humans will all of a sudden get their shit together and mitigate this climate clusterfuck. . What he states, many of us have been bleating on about for DECADES.
MrTrashCompaktor (6 months ago)
in good news though NOAA oceanexplorergov ' DEEP SEARCH 2018 expedition runs from August 19 to September 2, 2018'....these deep sea streams are the best if you haven't seen them https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVOBIldMAgk&t=0s One of my favorite things on the internet....and some of the lectures and stuff you post of course. :)
Laurence Vanhelsuwe (6 months ago)
And nobody who pronounces the name of the root cause. Nobody in this documentary mentions what lies at the absolute foundation of the causal chain.. capitalism. Once you understand that all climate shit boils down to capitalism, you start to understand how big the obstacle really is. The NASA guy claims that tackling sea level rise will be bigger than a national highway infrastructure programme.. he's not even close.
jfhow (4 months ago)
I would say overpopulation is the problem.
Leigh Foulkes (6 months ago)
Sorry but BS. There are a lot of problems with capitalism (mostly just human nature) but you'd see same problems in any other form of government (it's just human nature).
Joan Sparky (6 months ago)
Laurence, well, look up the definition of capitalism on wikipedia.. the only thing it defines is who OWNs the means of production. And I bet you can't tell me where to draw the line - value wise - where that happens in communism. Is it ok to own a pencil or a screwdriver or a pres drill or a shop or a fishing boat or a farm or a big shop or a big company..? Where do you draw the (artificial) line and how do you explain it? I'm all ears.
Laurence Vanhelsuwe (6 months ago)
You should read a bit of Marx, my friend.. capitalism grinds working people into a powder, and rubs its infinitely greedy boots into the powder. Don't give me this "capitalism is the only way" bull.
Joan Sparky (6 months ago)
Laurence, not capitalism, but monopolies under private control on markets are the problem. The opposite of capitalism is communism, which is not a solution at all. We don't have free market capitalism, we have markets that are captivated by private interests, which means there is not enough or no competition to equalize things. And after running this for a couple decades the monopolies have taken hold of the political realm as well.. Which monopolies am I talking about? Money - currencies have a zero lower boundary problem, which causes them to become a monopoly once people start to have a lot of it (yes, this sounds like communist gaga, but it's not). This is a systematic problem and anyone who is a free market capitalist and supports competition will come to this very same conclusion (not the people are at fault, but the system that allows this). Other monopolies are patents, licenses, digital rights, market entry barriers.. All of them have only one aim - creating monopoly profits for the shareholders/creditors. Look up 'zero lower boundary' on wikipedia. Mainstream economists do not talk about this. There are some that blog about it, but that's it. The only way out right now are grassroot regional currencies that try to remove that zero lower boundary with a fee on daytime saving accounts and cash. Also have a look for negative central bank interest rates for Japan, EU, Switzerland and Sweden among others.. all developed countries have the same problem. The US not directly, as it's currency is in higher demand due to it's status as oil-currency. Still, those negative interest rates are a sign of saturated markets, that don't grow at x% anymore, no matter how cheap money is. But look at the investors/shareholders/creditors and their whining about the fact that there are not a lot of investment opportunities anymore.. they sit on money and are not happy about the ROI that is on offer, thus they rather gamble on stock, while the real economy - the one that needs money to exchange the goods & services with is being starved of it (as it's not growing fast enough anymore). That's why labor gets less and less. That's the monetary monopoly at work. It's a systematic problem of money.
annie fu (6 months ago)
4 ft in the next 80 years....... that is 6 inches in the next 10 years...... maybe the people in Miami wouldn't need to move quite yet, but they will definitely be buying rubber boots!
The Voodoos (6 months ago)
Oh well lets see if Mr McPherson has any cheerful news,? "We are dead men walking" I don't like the sound of that.?
The Voodoos (6 months ago)
Laurence Vanhelsuwe "maybe you should brush up on your sciences before you ridicule someone with deeper knowledge?" Well first of all..... Mr you got it all wrong..... For my part i am not ridiculing Guy although he has made many past predictions that the end is coming one i believe as recent as 2017 and second he is not a climatologist and lastly his knowledge regarding climate systums and our current situation is no more deeper than many that comment here i think i can include my humble self as well "Sure, fight back.. but first, you need to figure what to fight." Once again i can see you have it all wrong again.......It was meant more in the spirit as in strength like not holding ones hands up and saying that's it we are all dead and to be fair that is what Guy preaches,however with that all said and done i quite like him. P.S please don't direct stupidity to me again until you understand the flow of what is being said.?
Laurence Vanhelsuwe (6 months ago)
Sure, fight back.. but first, you need to figure what to fight.. and sooner or later you realise "Oh shit, all of this is the result of one thing: capitalism. Undiluted, unlimited, all-powerful capitalism". And then you think "Hmm.. those Russians tried fighting capitalism big time a century ago, and, eh.. that fight lasted like 70 odd years, and they lost." So by all means, fight.. but know what to fight against.
Laurence Vanhelsuwe (6 months ago)
If a "loony" tells you an asteroid is going to hit the earth, and the asteroid is really big, and if his calculations and observations are 100% spot on, then the asteroid is going to hit, no? Whether you like it or not. Whether you can "believe" it or not. It's just going to hit. Because the law of physics don't give a sh*t about people who don't believe, or think that this or that is "loony". What's "loony" about making a prediction that is based on a complex web of interrelated processes that most of us can't comprehend fully? Dryly describing the effects of, say, the impact of an asteroid, doesn't make the describer a loony... maybe you should brush up on your sciences before you ridicule someone with deeper knowledge?
The Voodoos (6 months ago)
A Randomjack "If you want to go down without even fighting, well, jump off the boat." Yes i have to agree with you no point going down without a fight.
The Voodoos (6 months ago)
deebz270 " Okay smartarse" Keep it friendly until someone insults you,then you can name call. P.S your comment is like a book,you should try your hand at being an author is it all your own work or did you copy and paste,?
The Voodoos (6 months ago)
Ah sea level rise one of the most debatable subjects on climate change "twice as much as you thought 6 years ago" Yikes i wonder what you might be estimating over the next two decades,ah the joys and surprises of climate change.? ,
The Voodoos (6 months ago)
A Randomjack "I suspect all the wildfire smoke has slowed the melt rate of Greenland" If you mean soot particles,? it accelerates the thaw as loss of albidio "A few years ago, Greenland lost 400 gt and the previous 5 years average was over 300..." But i think i am right in saying those figures were not counting gain,? "I lately read that it may also be what is partially holding arctic sea ice together, hence my inference about Greenland." Well the most concerning issue is the ESAS which is a long distance from Greenland its where the large deposits on preformed methane are stored figures of maybe 700gt and if you think that around 20% of the radiate forcing some 5gt CH4 at present, its a problem to say the least.
A. Randomjack (6 months ago)
I suspect all the wildfire smoke has slowed the melt rate of Greenland. This climate change thing is hugely dynamic, A few years ago, Greenland lost 400 gt and the previous 5 years average was over 300... I lately read that it may also be what is partially holding arctic sea ice together, hence my inference about Greenland. On the other hand, all that ash is accelerating melt and thawing permafrost when it's sunny.
The Voodoos (6 months ago)
A Randomjack Well if current figures are correct Antarctica is shedding some 219 gt as apposed to Greenland 200 gt Greenland's topography would indicate a slow melt from the South West side( hemmed in by mountain range) but the North East side has the potential to drain deep inside,regarding Antarctica that's the baby to watch.
A. Randomjack (6 months ago)
You know, we won't all sit there and wait to drown watching TV, some of us will get on with Life.
PK Saenz (6 months ago)
Exactly! And next month it will be sooner than they expected, again. Then the next month it will be sooner than expected as well... then we all die. Surprise! So what is that time line like? @2026? RIP Humans!
Ron Simmons (6 months ago)
Is it local or global?  We know the oceans were 100's of feet lower during the ice age.  What is the GLOBAL rise and is it really a hickey stick (be nice to see the date for past 1000 years)?
Leynad Jee (6 months ago)
The energy to liquefy one kilogram of ice into cold water is the same that heats the cold water to 80° C. The sea ice area is in summer 50% less than 30 years ago, but the ice-volume up to 85% less, so it will vanish very soon. The energy reflected by ice compare to open sea water is at least times 5 if not 6, so a lot of more energy severely heating up open water instead melting ice. Greenland is not in the Himalaya the last time i looked at the map.
A. Randomjack (6 months ago)
I did not plan to write a book and I already know what the cryosphere is. However the contribution of land glaciers is less then a meter (if you exclude Greenland and Antarctica). Sea ice adds nothing to sea level rise... except after it warms up, and it perhaps contributes to tides as more water can be mobilize, but that is hypothetical at the moment... (not been verified) However, you are 100% correct about the last 1000 years, which is mostly relevant for the past 10 000.. Most people don't know the Earth is warming because of greenhouse gases while it should be cooling. The climate system is in a very precarious equilibrium, we already added well enough greenhouse gases to keep warming despite nature would have us slowly trend towards ans ice. within 10 000 years, but no ice seems possible for the next 50 000 to 100 000 years depending on what scientific study you read. Nature and technology offer no hope. We might be able to cool down, but this will impair agriculture. Good thing I won't be the one taking , or not, that decision Bart put it best _Damned if you do, damned if you don't_
Deebz270 (6 months ago)
*A. Randomjack* Not entirely correct. The *cryosphere* consists of all of the planet's frozen regions. Which includes both terrestrial ice sheets and oceanic, or sea surface-ice. *ALL* of the terrestrial ice sheets - the GIS (Greenland Ice Sheet), the WAIS (West Antarctic Ice Sheet), the EAIS (East Antarctic Ice Sheet), the sub-tropical and temperatre glaciers all have direct influence on global sea levels. Local topography has little effect on GLOBAL sea levels. . *Ron Simmons* - THe data for the past 1000 years would be mostly irrelevant, as up until the more recent period, sea-levels were relatively stable.
Leynad Jee (6 months ago)
The last time with that high CO2 levels in the atmosphere (3 Mio years) the sea level was app. 20 meters higher.
A. Randomjack (6 months ago)
Hello Ron It is global but not equal everywhere. Currents, land movements, changes in local mass will locally affect the amount of sea level rise. The amount of water in any of it's 3 forms, gas, liquid, solid is always the seam on this planet. The only way sea level varies is through melting and freezing water in Greenland and Antarctica. We have paleoclimate data for millions of years, although it has "some uncertainties" about levels, it doesn't about trends though. Earth's climate system is beautifully complex. Happy learnings.

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